The role of the EU, Russia´s interests & Ukraine´s ambitions

We cannot get into conclusions if we do not analyze the conflict in the correct historical context, within an impartial focus, deep exercise on critical thinking -not just Media content-, and a negotiatior mind.  Is precisely these 3 key aspects that were missing for the EU strategy. In fact, the goal was stated clearly: win the war at all costs, “as long as it takes”, within heavy sanctions to Russia -now identified as a threat for all Europeans-, and an altruist goal to protect Ukrainian citizens. The wide support coming from European citizens were precisely because of the message of threat against Europeans, the use of nuclear weapons, and the wrong idea that the basis of all action was humanitarian support for a vulnerable Nation. Actually the scenario was completely different, and a determined goal behind all political statements: ensure an EU deal on Ukrainian rare-earths for supply chains on raw materials.[1] In fact since 2021, the EU has signed a memorandum of understanding, establishing a partnership on raw materials, that was deliberately hidden from the public -there is no mention of it during the conflict-, centered the debate on Russia´s “brutality” and general “common interests” with Ukraine, instead of referring of the very  essence of European engagement.

Is it only now, that the recurrent statement of: “as long as it takes war” makes sense.

Not surprisingly, Pres. Trump started negotiations by their own in their usual no- politically correct style, although with a business-political focus in two main points: negotiate a peace agreement, and getting benefits from the rare-earths.

When German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said: “Europe must be involved in the negotiations — and I think that’s very easy to understand,” particularly if Europe is” supposed to play a central or the main role in the peace order.”,[2]is referring to rare-earths partnerships, not really about peace negotiations.

Simply to further a deepest implementation of the already signed agreement “Minsk agreements” I and II from 2014-2015, along with desisting from joining NATO (one of the most relevant conditions presented by Russia in any possible negotiation) would be enough elements to reach a stable situation and start negotiations. However, not for Ukraine, neither for the EU, a negotiated peace agreement granting Russia´s expectations, would be good.

When Ukrainian Deputy Head Ihor Brusylo stated: “That’s where the negotiation will start. We have to recuperate our land that was grabbed illegally. This is the issue of negotiations”, “we, now, are not ready to accept any territorial concessions whatsoever. We have no other option but to say no to a bad peace deal.[3]

A “bad peace deal” is the one that supposes concessions on the mineral reserves. A war cannot end without mutual concessions, in this specific case, it gets stuck because it has already been part of a negotiation with the EU that guarantee them support in the long term. Is this commitment the one that prevent to sign any deal with Russia, -in addition to Ukrainian ambition to retake Crimea, among other conditions-.

As stated by Ursula von der Leyen, in relation to the European Critical Raw Materials Act: “Lithium and rare earths are already replacing gas and oil at the heart of our economy.”[4] Is it clear that the priority is Ukraine, and not Russia -used to supply 40% natural gas to Europe before the invasion-

In October 2021 the EU-Ukraine Summit,[5] entailed the consolidation of the partnership that started in 2014, and the EU mobilized an unprecedent package of more than 17 billion in loans, and grants for Ukraine. Furthermore, benefits like visa liberalization for Ukrainian citizens for short stays, EU digital COVID certificate, civil aviation agreement, Horizon Europe Program, Euratom Research, or the DCFTA free trade agreement (since 2017) to reduce tariffs and facilitate trade, were some of the multiple commitments that the EU adopted to build a trustworthy relationship. No doubts, a peace agreement based on concessions is the only one that enters in contradiction with Europe´s interests, not so, a complete withdraw from Russian troops with no territorial concessions.

The sound failure on ending the war in Ukraine, and the rejection to the new possibilities that delivers the “one-in-one” negotiations from Pres. Trump supposes a new dimension for whom the EU neither Ukraine is prepared for.

Transforming the supposed protection role from Europe into the brick of a non-accountable stage. The lack of information delivering to the European citizenship as well as the lack of a roadmap based on negotiation, confirm the complete failure on the conflict management.

Is only when Pres. Trump claims the 50% of “rare earth minerals” that we may get an idea of the real issue in Ukraine, and comprehend on its fullest EU´s strategy of: “as long as it takes war”. Is it clear for me that hidden a so relevant aspect, comes from a determined will to serve a political elite “behind the scenes agenda” getting a portion of power, not visible for the international community and public opinion.

Historical context that explains the conflict by itself

The 1^st day of the Ukraine-Russia conflict was not the 22d February 2022 but long time ago, within the same contradictions as in the present. In 2008 Pres. Yushchenko requested to join NATO, and they promised to do so. It was not until  Yanukovich was elected President (2010) that the agenda changes radically, and the political will was transforming the Nation into a neutral state cooperating with Russia, and Western Alliances. It was not only until 2014 when Yanukovich rejects signing a free trade agreement with the EU that the violent protests lead into the Maidan revolution. Ukraine´s Parliament voted, and Yanukovich was removed. Immediately the true agenda was unfolded, and an interim government announced an EU signal of the agreement. Consequently, Russia proceeded in Crimea bringing about the same situation as it is today.

Once again, the EU interfered in the fragile status of a historical controversy among the former Soviet-Union Nations. Besides as claimed by Russia for so long, there is a persecution ethnic Russians, and Russian-speaking citizens. Is widely known that Ukraine progressively becomes a far-right hub[6], (to the point that in a referendum in Crimea 97% of their citizens were in favor of the secession, same happened in Dombas). For whom the Azov regiment played a key role. Azov is a far-right voluntary military group officially integrated into the National Guard of Ukraine in 2014. Was led by Andriy Biletsky that in 2010 said “Ukraine´s national purpose is to lead the white races of the world in a final crusade…..against inferior races:”

Conclusion

Surprisingly the engagement from NATO, EU and US is a matter of power, not peace. Not surprisingly until now there were no possibilities to end the conflict. Pres. Trump break down the process and bring into stage alternatives: lifting sanctions against Russia, start economic cooperation[7] by buying Russian minerals, and stop delivering military aid to Ukraine, instead inviting them to sign an agreement over access to their rare-earths -as today 28^th February no deal has been signed -.[8]

Russia has more natural resources than Ukraine if we see it under the presumption that the war is only driven by that purpose. In fact, Russia has the world’s fifth-largest reserves of rare earth metals, after China,Brazil, India and Australia, according to the U.S. Geological Survey data.                           

Putin said that potential rare earth metals exploration deals could also be extended to deposits in territory in eastern Ukraine that Russia controls after three years of military action.  He also offered the U.S. the opportunity for joint exploration of the country’s rare earth metals deposits, as well as the supply of aluminum to the U.S. domestic market, under a future economic deal, reported Reuters.” [9]

For better understanding we need to know that rare-earths are:

 “ A group of 17 metals that are key ingredients in thing such as magnets, batteries, aircrafts and medical imaging and are used in many manufactured items from cell phones to cars”. Crucial in a variety of industries such as health care, power generation, petroleum refining and consumer electronics, they can play a crucial role in national security, energy independence, environmental future and economic growth, according to the U.S. Department of Energy. China, with whom Trump has threatened a trade war, is the world s largest producer of rare earths”.[10]e world’s

So far EU agenda has not been transparent at all, and is crystal clear there were no advances in negotiation, as the main goal was to “win the war”, and not to settle the conflict, and get into a mutual-concessions peace agreement

“As long as it takes” as the only-one strategy from the EU, has never been a solution for regional or even global peace, yet only for war. Is it time to accept that the EU has not helped Ukraine for humanitarian reasons but for getting power over the rare-earths, under the excuse to protect Ukraine when actually there were building an economic partnership. None of the latest were communicated transparently to the European citizenship, actually, it was done against the latest trends. According to the EU Public Opinion Monitoring Unit -February 2024- despite broad support from citizens to the EU´s response to Ukraine, in the last two years it has decreased. “Humanitarian aid maintains the highest approval; financial and military support decreased…”Furthermore, Russia is not at the top risk among G17 countries anymore, this year only UK and Japanese citizens are considered so.[11] Notwithstanding the EU ignored the public opinion, following the agenda for whom negotiation was not an option and sanctions were the top priority -even with no outcomes-, marking a new era for whom accountability, and transparency is missing.

Like the photo, even if the sky is blue there are still some clouds that prevent to know the truth. In terms of leadership it seems that are uncapable of getting out from the deep, and dark well, that symbolizes the lack of Diplomacy, effective Negotiation, and Political Leadership beyond business interests.

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[1] https://eadaily.com/en/news/2025/02/25/everything-is-secret-brussels-has-admitted-that-it-receives-critical-raw-materials-from-ukraine-since-2021

[2] https://apnews.com/article/nato-us-ukraine-war-europe-negotiations-0e3688f571c33797d812b1b9cbc575e5

[3] https://www.npr.org/2025/02/25/nx-s1-5306391/ukraine-official-ilhor-brusylo-trump-russia-europe

[4] https://www.codastory.com/climate-crisis/ukraine-lithium-export/

[5] https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/meetings/international-summit/2021/10/12/

[6] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/1/who-are-the-azov-regiment

[7] https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/russia-says-it-s-open-to-economic-cooperation-with-us-on-rare-earth-minerals-and-energy/ar-AA1zIfUM

[8] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/2/28/mapping-ukraines-rare-earth-and-critical-minerals

[9] https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/rare-earths-reserves-top-8-countries

[10] https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/02/25/rare-earths-trump-ukraine-putin/80054133007/

[11] https://thesustainabilityreader.com/2024/09/30/dismantling-the-true-colors-of-the-eu-political-military-agenda-for-the-next-decade/